How to Deal With the damage Risk in MMA Betting

How to Deal With the damage Risk in MMA Betting

The big variety of injuries in MMA is giving me pause this morning. It was announced yesterday on MMAJunkie that Chris Leben's opponent Karlos Vemola got out their UFC 155 fight as a result of a personal injury. Chris Leben can be facing Derek Brunson at UFC 155. This really is another illustration of a fighter needing to pull out of your fight because of a personal injury this season.MMA Betting Tips 2012 continues to be the entire year of the injury in MMA and there seems to be a vast selection in sight. There have been many theories put forth why UFC fighters have been getting injured so frequently. Ufc president dana white says this is due to the education camps are packed with numerous top guys these days. Understanding that back in the day, the UFC fighter was the best guy while working out and the sparring partners are not a threat to him. But with today's stacked gyms, guys are sparring with elite level fighters and getting hurt.

Some fans have questioned whether or not the increased scrutiny of PED use within MMA is mainly responsible for fighters to curtail their steroid use, and as a result they're not able to heal from injuries as fast as they did previously. I do believe how the injury epidemic mostly is due to carelessness in the gym. Yves Edwards in addition has declared carelessness has played a job within the injury epidemic. An example he gives may be the familiar story of two fighters sparring standup while other guys are wrestling near them, and then suddenly thing you understand someone gets come across and gets their ACL smudged.

As a sports bettor I'm not particularly thinking about the cause of damages. I'm way more concerned with the chance of betting over a fighter who has the fight with a serious injury i don't know about. When I place a bet I will be putting my money on the line, I will be putting my clients' money on the fishing line (since several of these place bets in my recommendation), and I am putting my reputation as a skilled handicapper at stake. For me, all of these factors matter, when I place a bet the monetary and reputational stakes are high. The last thing I want to do is to lose myself and my clients money by betting on the fighter who, unbeknown to all of us, is fighting by having an injury and is only fighting at 50% of his capacity.

Knowing using a degree of certainty whether or not a fighter is fighting injured is tough, if not near impossible, to have an outsider like myself to understand frequently. Fighters that we bet on fighting injured is surely an unavoidable risk on this business. But there is something we are able to caused by mitigate that risk. Our situation is much like banks. Banks understand that after they hold cash, criminals will endeavour to rob them. But banks neither quit the lucrative banking business, nor will they just take a nap and accept the robberies. Just like they are doing their finest to mitigate the robbery risk, we do our best to mitigate the injury risk.

Something we can do is always to do not be too certain about a fight. As I construct in my Paths to Victory approach, sometimes we can predict a fight with near certainty. Sometimes our fighter may have two or three paths to victory while his opponent has none. During these fights, the possibility which our fighter will win can be a near certainty, but not a certainty. A primary reason that our situation is not 100% certain, even though our opponent has no paths to victory, is due to the chance which our fighter is fighting injured. Almost all enough time our fighter will never be fighting injured, but not he could be. Knowing that no future fight result has a 100% certain outcome, and accepting that the future is always unknown to a certain extent, is one way to deal with possible injuries. This humble acceptance that we don't know the long run for sure leads to our handicap. As opposed to predicting a whopping favorite to win 95% to 100% of the time, I lower that estimation to not ever more than 90%. Capping a favorite's possiblity to win at 90% discounts into our handicap and prediction the unfortunate occurrence which our fighter is fighting injured. Decreasing the confidence levels in your handicap is a sure way to responsibly are the cause of the damage risk.

Another way to mitigate the injury risk to some degree is bet mostly on main card, well known, and highly covered (through the MMA media) UFC fighters.MMA Betting Tips When i have said before, fundamental essentials fighters which i usually bet on and these will be the fighters that comprise my circle of competence. Betting on these popular and highly covered fighters is beneficial for 2 reasons. The initial reason is always that these popular established UFC fighters are more financially secure compared to the less popular undercard fighters. A man like Georges St-Pierre won't fight injured. He's got huge amount of money on your bottom line and that he will not put himself into a dangerous situation by fighting injured just so he is able to obtain a paycheck. You will find exceptions for this theory though. Sometimes well known and financially-OK guys will fight with serious injuries. We got this with Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos within their first fight. Both guys appeared to the fight with serious knee injuries. Both of them probably fought because they weren't just the top level, and also the only fight shown around the first UFC on FOX show. And Anderson Silva fought Chael Sonnen with a serious rib injury in their first fight. But generally, the better known plus more financially secure main card guys are less inclined to fight injured to get a paycheck.

Another good point why betting solely on the main card and known UFC guys helps mitigate the damage risk is because are covered more intensely from the MMA media. For many undercard fights, there will not be one story done in it. Truly there is a wide range of press coverage for that well known UFC fighters' fights. This press coverage is information. And sometimes that information tells you that the fighter may be injured. It is not as clear as a possible MMA news website letting you know that the fighter is injured. It really is grayer than that. You must ingest the maximum amount of information that you can and find out when you can put the bits of the puzzle together. Let's look at a good example.

When Cain Velasquez fought Junior Dos Santos in their first fight I knew that there was probably a problem with Cain starting that fight, and that i stayed away from betting on him. How did I know? I took multiple items of the puzzle, position them together, and came away using a mosaic of knowledge that informed me something wasn't right. I'd seen a training video of Cain and his trainer referring to how difficult his comeback from two shoulder surgeries have been. In Cain's recovery from your surgeries he wasn't allowed to raise his pulse for any significant time period, something such as six weeks or two to three months. He couldn't even walk on a treadmill or ride a fixed bike. Cain's cardio training was effectively challenge to zero. After which in the weigh-ins Cain turned up looking markedly fatter and softer than he had before. Tying the two details together explained that something had not been right with Cain. I did not understand that he previously an accident without a doubt, and i also didn't know that his knee was injured. However had a feeling more often absolutely nothing Cain probably had an injury coming into this fight anf the husband had not been prepared to fight. And that i avoided even contemplating betting on him.

Piecing the knowledge puzzle together is not an black and white quantitative game. This is a gray and qualitative game. Though the correct detached and logical temperament, a skilled handicapper can enjoy the knowledge game and help mitigate the potential risk of betting with an injured fighter. And the facts are given by the MMA media, who consequently is a lot more more likely to cover the well known main card fighters. Thus betting on the also known main card fighters rather than the lesser known undercard fighters is an additional approach to help lower the risk of betting by using an injured fighter.